AI could boost software engineer productivity by 32.6%

Economists from the National Bureau of Economic Research analyzed enterprise share prices to evaluate whether investments in AI coding tools are cost-effective

Justin Tomlinson

Editor-in-Chief, Mora Discover

2 sources
AI could boost software engineer productivity by 32.6%

Tools such as Anthropic Claude Code and OpenAI Codex have changed the face of software development, and indications suggest that investment in these technologies is set to increase further. However, the expanding adoption of AI has raised persistent questions regarding whether paying monthly subscriptions, alongside potential additional usage fees, is genuinely cost-effective. Enterprises continue to assess whether the mounting financial investment in AI-generated software will ultimately prove to be worthwhile.[1][2]

Economists from the US National Bureau of Economic Research have attempted to answer that question, at least indirectly, in a paper titled The Macroeconomic Effect Of AI: Sizing The Software Engineering Channel. According to the research, artificial intelligence tools have the potential to boost software engineer productivity by 32.6%.[1][2]

In the paper, the economists attempted to calculate how much artificial intelligence has increased the productivity of software engineers in enterprises located outside the software and semiconductor industries. To measure the economic impact and productivity changes within these businesses, the researchers based their calculations on an examination of company share prices.[1][2]

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